The 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh is still months away, but the race for the coveted No. 1 overall pick is already heating up. With last year’s draft seeing quarterback Cam Ward rise from obscurity to the top spot, the question looms: who will dominate the 2026 draft? Will a quarterback like LaNorris Sellers or Cade Klubnik lead the pack, or could a non-quarterback like Caleb Downs break the mold? This article dives into the latest predictions, updated stats, and expert insights to uncover the serious contenders, potential risers, and long shots for the No. 1 pick.
Why the No. 1 Pick Matters
The No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft is a franchise-altering decision. Teams often target quarterbacks to anchor their future, but elite talents at other positions can also shift the balance. With the 2026 draft class brimming with potential, from dual-threat quarterbacks to game-changing defenders, the stakes are higher than ever. Let’s explore the top prospects vying for the top spot, categorized into serious contenders, potential risers, and long shots, based on their 2024 performances and projected growth.
Serious Contenders for the No. 1 Pick
These four prospects have the highest chance of going No. 1 in 2026, each with a 15% predicted probability based on their elite traits and 2024 performances.
LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina (15% Chance)
LaNorris Sellers is a dual-threat dynamo who has NFL scouts buzzing. At 6-foot-3 and 242 pounds, Sellers combines a powerful arm with explosive athleticism. In 2024, he threw for 2,534 yards, 18 touchdowns, and seven interceptions while rushing for 674 yards and seven scores. His 65.6% completion rate as a redshirt freshman signals room for growth, and his ability to lead South Carolina to six wins in their final seven games showcases his clutch factor.
Why He Could Be No. 1: Sellers’ rare blend of size, arm talent, and mobility makes him a prototype for modern NFL quarterbacks. If he improves his ball security (11 fumbles in 2024) and quickens his decision-making (3.06-second average time to throw), he could cement himself as QB1.
Key 2025 Matchup: Watch Sellers against LSU in Week 3 to see how he handles elite defenses.
Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson (15% Chance)
Cade Klubnik transformed from a question mark to a star in 2024, throwing for 3,639 yards, 36 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. His clutch performance in the College Football Playoff against Texas (336 yards, three touchdowns) put him on the map. At 6-foot-2 and 210 pounds, Klubnik relies on precision and poise rather than elite size.
Why He Could Be No. 1: Klubnik’s quick reads and repeatable mechanics shine in chaotic pockets. With Clemson’s loaded roster, including top receivers Antonio Williams and T.J. Moore, he’s poised for another leap. However, concerns about his arm strength could cap his ceiling unless he proves doubters wrong.
Key 2025 Matchup: Clemson’s Week 1 clash with LSU will be a defining moment for Klubnik’s draft stock.
Drew Allar, QB, Penn State (15% Chance)
Drew Allar’s 2024 season was a breakout, with a 66.5% completion rate, 3,327 yards, 24 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Standing at 6-foot-5 and 238 pounds, Allar has the prototypical size and arm strength NFL teams crave. His growth under offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki was evident, but inconsistent ball placement remains a concern.
Why He Could Be No. 1: Allar’s physical tools are undeniable, and a strong 2025 season could vault him to the top. He needs to shine in big games, particularly against Oregon (Sept. 27) and Ohio State (Nov. 1), to silence critics after a lackluster CFP semifinal against Notre Dame (12-for-23, 135 yards, one interception).
Key 2025 Matchup: Allar’s performance against Oregon will be a litmus test for his clutch ability.
Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU (15% Chance)
Garrett Nussmeier stepped out of Jayden Daniels’ shadow in 2024, throwing for 4,052 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. His fearless style and knack for big plays make him a highlight machine, though his recklessness led to multiple interceptions against ranked opponents. At 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds, Nussmeier’s pocket vision and anticipation stand out.
Why He Could Be No. 1: Nussmeier’s low 2.9% sack rate and ability to thread tight windows are elite. If he can curb his turnover-prone tendencies and adapt to LSU’s new receivers, he could surge up draft boards. His Week 1 matchup against Clemson will be crucial.
Key 2025 Matchup: Nussmeier vs. Klubnik in Week 1 is a must-watch quarterback duel.
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Potential Risers to Watch
These prospects could climb into the No. 1 conversation with breakout 2025 seasons, leveraging their upside and favorable situations.
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (12% Chance)
Fernando Mendoza, a transfer from Cal to Indiana, brings a 6-foot-5, 225-pound frame and a 91.1 QBR outside the pocket. In 2024, he threw for 3,004 yards, 16 touchdowns, and six interceptions, with a nation-leading 5.1% off-target percentage. Indiana’s quarterback-friendly offense, led by coach Curt Cignetti, could unlock Mendoza’s potential.
Why He Could Rise: Mendoza’s accuracy and mobility make him a sleeper. If he develops patience in the pocket, he could follow in the footsteps of Kurtis Rourke, a Cignetti-coached QB drafted in 2025.
Key 2025 Matchup: Mendoza’s Week 2 game against Ohio State will test his readiness.
T.J. Parker, Edge, Clemson (10% Chance)
T.J. Parker, a 6-foot-3, 265-pound edge rusher, is the top non-quarterback contender. His 11 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss in 2024 ranked second among FBS defensive linemen, and his four forced fumbles highlight his playmaking ability.
Why He Could Rise: Parker’s blend of speed and power could make him the next Travon Walker, the last edge rusher to go No. 1 (2022). A dominant 2025 season on Clemson’s stacked defense could push him to the top.
Key 2025 Matchup: Parker’s performance against LSU’s offensive line in Week 1 will be telling.
Arch Manning, QB, Texas (5% Chance)
Arch Manning, the nephew of Peyton and Eli, remains a wild card. With only 95 career passing attempts, he threw for 939 yards, nine touchdowns, and two interceptions in 2024, adding 106 rushing yards and four scores. His 6-foot-4, 222-pound frame and smooth delivery scream potential, but his limited experience makes a 2026 declaration unlikely.
Why He Could Rise: If Manning starts in 2025 and replicates his flashes under coach Steve Sarkisian, he could skyrocket up boards. His tendency to lock onto his first read needs work, but a Heisman-caliber season could make him No. 1.
Key 2025 Matchup: Texas’ rivalry game against Oklahoma will showcase Manning’s growth.
Long Shots with Upside
These seven prospects are less likely to go No. 1 but could surge with breakout performances, mirroring Cam Ward’s rise in 2025.
John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma (2% Chance)
John Mateer, now at Oklahoma after a stellar 2024 at Washington State (3,139 yards, 29 touchdowns, seven interceptions), is a dual-threat star with 826 rushing yards and 15 scores. His confidence and downfield passing could elevate his stock in the SEC.
Why He’s a Long Shot: Mateer’s transition to a tougher schedule, including Michigan and eight SEC games, will test his consistency. A strong 2025 could make him a top-10 pick.
Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State (2% Chance)
Sam Leavitt fueled Arizona State’s 2024 turnaround, throwing for 2,885 yards, 24 touchdowns, and six interceptions. His calm demeanor and ability to dissect defenses make him a dark horse.
Why He’s a Long Shot: Leavitt’s lack of elite physical traits and Arizona State’s less prestigious platform could limit his rise, but a Big 12 title repeat could change that.
Peter Woods, DT, Clemson (1% Chance)
Peter Woods, a 6-foot-3, 315-pound defensive tackle, is a disruptive force with three sacks in 2024. His versatility and power make him a top-five candidate, but the last defensive tackle to go No. 1 was in 1994.
Why He’s a Long Shot: Positional value hurts Woods, but a sack-heavy 2025 could push him higher.
Spencer Fano, OT, Utah (1% Chance)
Spencer Fano, a 6-foot-3, 302-pound tackle, allowed just one sack in 2024 and excels in both pass protection and run blocking. Adding weight could boost his stock.
Why He’s a Long Shot: Offensive tackles rarely go No. 1, but Fano’s consistency could make him a top-10 pick.
Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama (1% Chance)
Kadyn Proctor’s 6-foot-7, 360-pound frame is ideal, but inconsistent pass protection holds him back. His power in the run game is unmatched, making him a polarizing prospect.
Why He’s a Long Shot: Proctor needs to refine his technique to compete with other elite tackles.
Isaiah World, OT, Oregon (1% Chance)
Isaiah World, a 6-foot-8, 312-pound transfer from Nevada, has elite athleticism but drew eight penalties in 2024. His move to Oregon’s tougher competition will be a proving ground.
Why He’s a Long Shot: World’s raw talent needs polish, but a penalty-free 2025 could elevate him.
Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State (1% Chance)
Caleb Downs, a 6-foot, 205-pound safety, is a generational talent with 77 tackles and a 28.6% completion rate allowed in coverage in 2024. No safety has ever gone No. 1, but Downs’ versatility makes him a dark horse.
Why He’s a Long Shot: Positional value is a barrier, but Downs’ playmaking could land him in the top five.
What to Watch in the 2025 College Football Season
The 2025 season will be pivotal for these prospects. Key matchups, such as Clemson vs. LSU (Week 1), Penn State vs. Oregon (Sept. 27), and Texas vs. Oklahoma, will shape the No. 1 pick narrative. Scouts will focus on consistency, clutch performances, and growth in high-pressure situations.
Final Thoughts: Who Will 2026 NFL Draft Be No. 1?
The 2026 NFL Draft is shaping up as a quarterback-heavy class, with LaNorris Sellers, Cade Klubnik, Drew Allar, and Garrett Nussmeier leading the charge. However, non-quarterbacks like T.J. Parker and Caleb Downs could steal the spotlight if they dominate. Arch Manning’s potential remains tantalizing, but his limited experience makes a 2027 declaration more likely.
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